Aryna Sabalenka remains the bookmakers’ favourite for the 2026 US Open, but there is no doubt the world No 1 has dropped off slightly in recent months and finds herself well down the list in terms of in-form players ahead of the season-ending Grand Slam.

Sabalenka has been the dominant player at Flushing Meadows the past few years as she is 19-1 in New York the past three years as she has won back-to-back titles with her only defeat coming in the 2023 final against Coco Gauff.

But the four-time Grand Slam winner will arrive at this year’s US Open with patchy form as she lost in the round of 16 at her last three events (Wimbledon, Toronto and Cincinnati) and, if truth be told, she has looked out of sorts.

But you cannot discount Sabalenka as you just have to go back to March for a reminder about how good she is on hard courts as she won the Indian Wells Open and Miami Open, becoming only the fifth woman to complete the Sunshine Double.

WTA News

Also, all four of her major titles have come on hard courts – two at the Australian Open and two at the US Open – while she also has three runners-up Slam trophies on the surface.

Confidence, though, is lacking and that is often the most crucial aspect for an athlete.

Who are Sabalenka’s main challengers?

Elena Rybakina

The reigning Australian Open champion shot up the list of favourites with her runners-up finish at the Canadian Open, but there are question marks about her fitness and her mentality when the pressure is on.

Rybakina has been struggling with a leg injury in recent weeks and she was forced to retire after five games against Iga Swiatek in the quarter-final of the Cincinnati Open, admitting that she could barely walk.

The two-time Grand Slam also seems to struggle when there is a lot on the line, and in this case the world No 1 ranking. Rybakina has had opportunities to overtake Sabalenka since Roland Garros, but came up short every time, including at Cincinnati.

She will again have a chance at Flushing Meadows as Sabalenka will drop 2,000 points as the defending champion.

Jessica Pegula

The 2024 US Open finalist has been one of the most consistent performers in recent weeks as she finished runner-up to Alex Eala at the Washington DC Open before losing in the round of 16 at the Canadian Open.

But she returned to winning ways at the Cincinnati Open as she will face Coco Gauff in the final.

Coco Gauff

A semi-finalist at Wimbledon, a semi-finalist in Toronto and now a finalist in Cincinnati, Gauff is one of the most in-form players on the WTA Tour.

Dare we say it, the two-time Grand Slam winner looks like she is finally settled when it comes to her serve, which spells danger for her opponents.

Iga Swiatek

After a nightmare Wimbledon title defence where she lost in the third round, Swiatek bounced back by winning the Canadian Open title before losing in the semi-final in Cincinnati against Pegula.

The Pole was the defending champion in Cincy so her last-four exit will result in a three-place drop to No 8 in the WTA Rankings, but we have seen glimpses of the “old Swiatek” in recent weeks.

Outsiders…

Naomi Osaka

The former world No 1 is finally looking like the player who won four Grand Slams – all on hard courts – in the space of four years as she has worked her way back up to 13 in the rankings.

Osaka reached the semi-final at last year’s US Open while she was also a quarter-finalist at Wimbledon this year.

She made the last eight at the Canadian Open before losing in three sets against Rybakina and then pulled out of this week’s Cincinnati Open due to fatigue so she should be fresh at the US Open.

Alex Eala

Eala has been told she will never win a Grand Slam due to her serve, but she continues to improve and is shutting up many of her detractors.

The Filipina won her maiden WTA Tour singles on the hard courts of the DC Open at the end of July to reach the top 20 of the WTA Rankings for the first time.

She followed it up with a run to the round of 16 at Toronto, but was thumped 6-4, 6-0 by Belinda Bencic and then lost in three sets against Amanda Anisimova in the third round in Cincy.

But the 21-year-old seems to keep her best for the big occasions, as she proved at Wimbledon when she beat Swiatek and in Washington when she defeated Pegula in the final.