Jannik Sinner’s announcement that he has been forced to end his 2026 season early due to a knee injury has fired the starting gun on the race to knock him off the top spot in the ATP Rankings, but his big rival Carlos Alcaraz will not be in a position to challenge for that No 1 ranking any time soon.
Sinner confirmed on Tuesday that he has been forced to draw the curtain on his season, after declaring he needs time to undergo a treatment programme to resolve the issues around his knee injury.
That would appear to open the door for Alcaraz to climb back to the top of the rankings, especially after his impressive win at the Japan Open on Tuesday.
Yet the ATP Rankings system will not open the door for the Spaniard to jump back into the top spot in the ranks for some time.
In fact, he could slide backwards in the rankings in the final weeks of 2026 and the opening phase of the new year.
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Alcaraz is currently more than 5,000 ranking points behind Sinner at No 3, with French Open and US Open champion Alexander Zverev sitting in between the two giants of the men’s game at No 2.
After Alcaraz missed a large chunk of 2026 with a wrist injury, he a lot of the ranking points he won during the same period of last year dropped off his ranking.
As he didn’t play at the French Open or Wimbledon, Alcaraz missed out on the chance to challenge for 4,000 ranking points at those two tournaments and he also missed a host of ATP Masters 1000 tournaments ahead of his return to action at the US Open.
Alcaraz will be the defending Australian Open when that tournament gets underway in January, meaning he cannot improve on the 2,000 he won in Melbourne last year.
He does have a window of opportunity to make ground on Zverev and Sinner in the rankings over the next few weeks as he missed the Shanghai Masters in 2025 due to injury and lost his opening match at the Paris Masters before losing in the ATP Finals championship match against Sinner.
If Alcaraz were to pick up the titles in Shanghai, Paris and at the ATP Finals, he would enjoy a rankings boost, but it would not be enough to put him back at world No 1 .
A much more likely scenario is Zverev will overtake Sinner before 2026 comes to an end and if he does that, he will become only the 30th man in history to top the ATP Rankings.
Alcaraz is already on that list and even though a return to No 1 is in his sights for 2027, he is relishing the prospect of what is to come over the next few weeks after his injury lay-off.
“I’m really looking forward to it, I’m very motivated for what’s to come. Shanghai, Paris, the Finals, the Davis Cup. These are tournaments I’d like to win someday,” he said.
“This year I’m coming with a lot of enthusiasm, I’m coming prepared, and we’ll see, because these are very important tournaments.
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“I’m really happy to be able to lift a trophy again. It’s been a while and obviously it’s special after my injury, my comeback, it’s the second tournament I’ve played since my comeback.
“Lifting the trophy means a lot. I’m just really, really happy about it. Really top week. I didn’t find my best tennis, my best level, but I did find the good solutions. I think that’s what matters at the end.
“Playing the most important points the best you can. I think I did it this week. I’m just happy. I think today was the best match of the week, or at least more consistent, the level that I played. Just really, really happy.”
