Jannik Sinner is assured of staying top of the rankings after the US Open, but Carlos Alcaraz, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Novak Djokovic are in danger of slipping down the list.
World No 1 Sinner finished runner-up to Alcaraz at Flushing Meadows 12 months, but he won’t return to New York this year for the season-ending Grand Slam as he is sidelined with a knee injury.
It means he won’t be able to defend the points he picked up in 2025, but his gap over the likes of Alexander Zverev and Alcaraz is big enough to keep top spot in the ATP Rankings.
The ATP uses a rolling 52-week, cumulative system for the rankings and players’ points from the corresponding period/tournament 12 months ago are removed at the start of the current edition before they then earn points for their round-by-round progression at the event.
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Example: If a player earned 100 points in 2025, those points drop from their total in the Live ATP Rankings at the start of the 2026 edition. Should the player lose early and earn only 60 points this time around, they go home with a deficit of -40.
Points The Big Names Will Drop At US Open
Carlos Alcaraz – 2,000
The defending champion has dropped to No 3 in the rankings behind Sinner and Zverev, and he could slip further down the list if he exits early at Flushing Meadows, as he will start with 5,160 points once the 2,000 points drop off.
There is also the small matter of Alcaraz playing in his first singles event following his wrist injury, so no one is quite sure what to expect from the seven-time Grand Slam winner.
Jannik Sinner – 1,300
The world No 1 will be on 11,500 points after dropping the 1,300 points, but he will still finish the tournament with a lead of nearly 2,000 points even if Zverev goes on to win the title.
Novak Djokovic and Felix Auger-Aliassime – 780
24-time Grand Slam winner Djokovic was beaten in straight sets by Alcaraz in the last four in 2025 while Auger-Aliassime lost in four sets against Sinner.
Djokovic is currently fifth in the rankings and he could slump out of the top 10 if he fails early in New York while fifth-placed Auger-Aliassime could also drop a few spots.
Lorenzo Musetti, Alex de Minaur, Taylor Fritz, Jiri Lehecka – 400
The four quarter-finalists have not exactly set the world alight in recent months with De Minaur seventh in the rankings, Fritz 10th, Musetti 14th and Lehecka 19th.
Alexander Zverev, Flavio Cobolli, Ben Shelton – 100
Zverev made an early exit last year and a title run in 2026 will see him move closer to his dream of becoming world No 1.
Cobolli and Shelton retired with injury in the third round last year, so they have a good opportunity to climb up the rankings with deep runs in 2026.
Cobolli sits at a career-high No 6 and will move to fourth behind Sinner, Zverev, Alcaraz and Auger-Aliassime in the Live Rankings once the 2025 points are dropped, while Shelton is currently at No 9.
