The US Open is now just a matter of weeks away, and although tennis fans were hoping it would mark the return of the Spanish Grand Slam winner and world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz, the possibility of him making his return at Flushing Meadows seems to be shrinking with every passing day.
This comes from the announcement that Carlos Alcaraz has pulled out of the Cincinnati Open, one of the primary warm-up events before the US Open begins at the end of August. It means Alcaraz is highly likely to either miss the tournament altogether or not be his full self. It’s led to Jannik Sinner becoming the runaway favourite on prediction markets, which you can use a Polymarket invite code to access, all while Alcaraz is facing another injury setback.
Sinner is a heavy favourite as the US Open nears
With the question marks around Alcaraz, and the US Open now just a matter of weeks away, it feels like Jannik Sinner is almost unstoppable. After a shock exit from the French Open, he roared to victory at Wimbledon, winning his 5th grand slam title and his second Wimbledon title.
Prediction markets seem to confirm that Sinner is the clear man to beat, giving Jannik Sinner a 56% chance to be the US Open singles winner. Carlos Alcaraz’s chances have halved since the news of his injury continuing to put him out of contention for ATP tour titles: His chance of winning the US Open slipped from 22% to 11% when the news first broke.
It does leave the same question on everyone’s lips: who could stop Jannik Sinner from claiming a sixth Grand Slam title? Prediction markets currently have the next biggest competitor as Alexander Zverev, with a 11% chance, fresh off winning the French Open and making the Wimbledon final, before ultimately falling short to Sinner.
Other contenders include Novak Djokovic at 5%, Taylor Fritz at 3%, and Daniil Medvedev at 2%.
When will Carlos Alcaraz return?
It’s set to be a third successive Grand Slam that Carlos Alcaraz has missed. Since retiring from a match in April with a wrist injury, that niggle has turned to a full-scale injury that has kept him out for all of clay and grass-court season.
Alcaraz is a 7-time Grand Slam winner, the youngest ever to complete the Grand Slam, and now its starting to look like he’s falling behind in his rivalry against Jannik Sinner. It looks as though Alcaraz is being especially careful with his injuries, pulling out of tournaments like Wimbledon and Roland Garros early to ensure he has time to recover. There’s hope that he will be back to his full self in due course, but that could likely be after the US Open concludes.
