Is Mirra Andreeva the favourite ahead of Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka to end as WTA year-end No 1?

Mirra Andreeva has secured a new career-high of No 3 in the rankings and her run at the China Open has pushed her into the conversation to finish as the year-end No 1 in the WTA Rankings.

The French Open champion started the WTA 1000 event in Beijing at No 5, but she first surpassed Coco Gauff with her run to the semi-final and then moved ahead of Jessica Pegula after reaching the final.

Andreeva sits on 6,371 in the Live WTA Rankings before Sunday’s showpiece match against local favourite Zheng Qinwen, still well adrift of world No 1 Elena Rybakina while No 2 Aryna Sabalenka also has a buffer despite their early exits from the China Open.

Victory over Zheng in Beijing will see Andreeva move to 6,721 points with the gap to Sabalenka dropping to under 1,000 points.

WTA News

Live WTA Rankings Top 5

1. Elena Rybakina – 9,696 points

2. Aryna Sabalenka – 7,485

3. Mirra Andreeva – 6,371/6,721

4. Jessica Pegula – 6,225

5. Coco Gauff – 5,974

Three-time Grand Slam winner Rybakina has a 3,325-point lead over Andreeva while it will be reduced to 2,975 if the Russian youngster goes on to win the China Open.

And although that lead is still massive, that advantage will disappear in the next month as the Kazakh star will drop a lot of points while Andreeva has virtually zero points to defend.

Points Dropping

Rybakina will drop 500 points is coming week for her 2025 Ningbo Open title run and she won’t earn any points back at the Wuhan Open as she withdrew from the WTA 1000 event due to injury.

Andreeva is defending 10 points from her 18th-best result over the past 52 weeks, but she is already guaranteed to earn those points back as she has a bye into the second round.

Of course, if she enjoys a deep run in Wuhan, she will chip away at Rybakina’s lead with a title run giving her another 1,000 points.

But Sabalenka could also solidify her case to finish the year as No 1 as she also doesn’t have any points to defend in Wuhan and the gap to Rybakina could be under 1,000 points if she wins the title.

After Wuhan, Rybakina will drop 195 points from a semi-final appearance at the 2025 Pan Pacific Open and 1,500 for her undefeated title run at the WTA Finals. Sabalenka will drop 1,000 points having finished runner-up to the Kazakh player at last year’s WTA Finals.

Andreeva, meanwhile, doesn’t have any more points to defend from 2025 as she lost in the first round in Ningbo last year and didn’t qualify for the season-ending event in Saudi Arabia.

What Is To Come

Rybakina is on the entry lists for the Ningbo Open and the Pan Pacific Open and that will give her an opportunity to increase her lead again, but at this stage it is unclear if she will be fit following her foot injury.

Andreeva and Sabalenka are not expected to play another event before the WTA Finals.

But a good result for Andreeva at the Wuhan Open could see her in the mix to finish as the year-end No 1 and perhaps even start the WTA Finals as favourite to top the rankings given her good form in recent weeks with Rybakina and Sabalenka struggling with either injury or form.