Cincinnati Open: How Elena Rybakina can dethrone Aryna Sabalenka as world No 1

Elena Rybakina closed the gap to world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka after the Canadian Open, and she has an opportunity to overtake her rival at the 2026 Cincinnati Open.

Sabalenka has topped the WTA Rankings for 95 consecutive weeks since October 2024, while she has spent a total of 103 weeks as the world No 1.

Rybakina is aiming to become the top-ranked player in the world for the first time, having been the world No 2 since March.

Following her run to the final in Toronto, which she lost to Iga Swiatek, Rybakina took her ranking points total to 8,316.

This left Rybakina 354 points behind Sabalenka, who suffered a surprise fourth round loss to Ekaterina Alexandrova.

Rybakina is, though, defending 390 points at the Cincinnati Open, having been a semi-finalist at last year’s event, while Sabalenka is defending 215 points from her quarter-final result in 2025.

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The world No 2 was, therefore, on 7,926 points in the Live WTA Rankings at the start of Cincinnati, while Sabalenka was on 8,455 points, meaning there was a 529-point gap separating the pair.

This gap remains the same in the current Live Rankings, with the pair having each gained 65 points after winning their opening matches in Cincinnati, leaving Sabalenka on 8,520 points and Rybakina on 7,991 points.

How Elena Rybakina can overtake Aryna Sabalenka in Cincinnati

Rybakina needs to at least reach the final in Cincinnati to have any chance of replacing Sabalenka as the world No 1 after the tournament.

If the Kazakh does reach the final, she would have 8,576 points, which would only be enough to see her overtake Sabalenka if her Belarusian rival loses in the third round.

If Sabalenka advances any further than the third round, Rybakina would need to win the Cincinnati title to claim the world No 1 ranking.

Rybakina would have 8,926 points if she were to secure the trophy at the WTA 1000 event, which would see her dethrone Sabalenka if the current world No 1 loses before the final.

Sabalenka, though, can ensure she retains top spot by reaching the final as this result would put her on 9,105 points — a total Rybakina cannot reach during this tournament.

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