ATP Japan Open draw: Carlos Alcaraz could face American quartet while Holger Rune makes his return

Carlos Alcaraz will kick off his Japan Open title defence against an American and, if the seedings hold, he could also face an American in the final

The ATP 500 event will enjoy a couple of “comebacks” as Alcaraz will play his first ATP Tour event in five months while Holger Rune returns after nearly a year out.

Alcaraz, of course, made his return from his wrist injury at the US Open and also featured at the Laver Cup, but the Japan Open will be his first ATP tournament since the Barcelona Open in April.

And the top seed has been handed a tricky opening match against the ever-improving Alex Michelsen with the American sitting at No 34 in the ATP Rankings following his run to the quarter-final of the US Open.

The Spaniard, though, is the favourite and a win over Michelsen will see him take on either Rei Sakamoto or Matteo Arnaldi in the second round while he is projected to meet seventh seed Tommy Paul, who starts his campaign against Alejandro Tabilo, in the quarter-final.

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Alcaraz leads Paul 7-2 in their head-to-head rivalry with his most recent win coming in the round of 16 at the US Open.

And if the seeds reach the business end of the tournament, then Alcaraz will face third seed Taylor Fritz in the semi-final.

Fritz starts against a qualifier and the draw will get tougher as he is projected to face either Lorenzo Musetti or Arthur Fery in the second round and Casper Ruud in the quarter-final.

Sixth seed Ruud faces Luciano Darderi in the first round while he could meet Rune in the second round.

Rune made his return to top-level tennis at the Davis Cup last week, but he will be playing in his first ATP Tour event since rupturing his Achilles at the Stockholm Open in October 2025.

The Norwegian faces Kyrian Jacquet in the first round.

Bottom Half Of The Draw

Ben Shelton’s withdrawal from the event means Frances Tiafoe is the second seed and he starts against former world No 4 Kei Nishikori while he could meet eighth seed Valentin Vacherot – up against Alexander Blockx in the first round – in the quarter-finals.

Rafael Jodar and Brandon Nakashima are the other seeds in the bottom half and the former opens his campaign against a qualifier while either Matteo Berrettini or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina could await in the round of 16.

Nakashima faces Ugo Humbert while Jiri Lehecka or Zizou Bergs could be second-round opponents.

Projected Quarter-Finals

Carlos Alcaraz (1) v Tommy Paul (7)

Taylor Fritz (3) v Casper Ruud (6)

Brandon Nakashima (5) v Rafael Jodar (4)

Valentin Vacherot (8) v Frances Tiafoe (2)

If the seedings hold, then Alcaraz could play an American in the first round (Michelsen), an American in the quarter-final (Paul), an American in the semi-final (Fritz) and an American in the final (Tiafoe).