Aryna Sabalenka is the world No 1 and two-time defending champion at the US Open, but not too many pundits are backing her to win this year’s title with the likes of Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff getting the nod instead.
The four-time Grand Slam champion is 19-1 at Flushing Meadows in the last three years as she won back-to-back trophies in 2024 and 2025 and finished runner-up to Gauff at the 2023 edition.
Having appeared in three major finals in 2025, many expected Sabalenka to dominate again this year, especially after she finished runner-up to Elena Rybakina at the Australian Open.
She also had an outstanding Sunshine Double in March as she won both the Indian Wells Open and Miami Open, but her form has dropped off since then, losing in the quarter-final at the French Open and fourth round at Wimbledon.
Sabalenka has failed to turn things around during the start of the North American hard-court swing as she also made round of 16 exits at the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open.
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During an ESPN media conference call, commentator and former world No 4 Mary Joe Fernandez said: “For the women, Sabalenka is going for a three-peat. She hasn’t reached a final since winning Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back. She struggled a bit winning the big points. She’s lost a couple big leads in some events. So, she’s vulnerable,” she told ESPN.
“I thought Coco Gauff played exceptional tennis in Cincinnati. She played well in Canada, as well. To me she’s the one that’s playing the best tennis. You have [Jessica] Pegula, [Elena] Rybakina if she’s healthy, who reached the finals in Canada. [Alex] Eala was outstanding in Washington. She beat a lot of top players there.”
Gauff reached the semi-final in Toronto before winning the Cincinnati title while Pegula was a runner-up at the Washington DC Open and in Cincy.
World No 2 Rybakina finished runner-up to Iga Swiatek in Canada and reached the quarter-final in Ohio before retiring with a leg injury, while Eala won the Citi DC Open.
But Swiatek is certainly one of the form players on the WTA Tour after her title run in Toronto and semi-final appearance in Cincinnati.
1989 French Open doubles champion Patrick McEnroe stated: “I would go with Iga Swiatek on the women’s. I think she is [my] favourite. I like the way she’s playing. She is playing with a little bit more margin, not quite as offensive, which I think is actually very good for her. That’s sort of why I’m picking her.
“I don’t think she’s the [overall] favourite. It would probably be Sabalenka. I think Mary Joe is spot on about Coco, in Cincinnati looked great the last couple matches.
“I’m not going to say it’s wide open on the women’s side, but there’s probably six to eight players that could win it.”
